COMSYS is pleased to announce the 5th Edition of the COMSYS Maritime VSAT Report which was released in December 2019.
This latest study offers complete and detailed coverage of the maritime VSAT market following 12 months of intensive research and over 185 interviews with VSAT operators, MSS service providers, industry insiders, maritime experts, hardware vendors and maritime industry associations. The report provides information on the current level of VSAT penetration into the stabilised antenna service business covering the current and prospective stabilised antenna manufacturers, market shares of the major operators, systems in use and market segmentation. Distinction is drawn between the oil & gas and maritime segments of the market.
Building on the already-extensive knowledge base within COMSYS, we have extended our maritime VSAT database with details of vessels and rigs in service with more than 120 operators worldwide. The report draws on this data to offer an unrivalled view of how this market has developed over the past five years and the trends and demands that are driving it forward today.
Over 200 pages with 56 tables and 86 charts and figures provide a statistical analysis of the service market by number of vessels in service and revenues, both historically and forecast over the next five years. As always, COMSYS bases its information on primary research and builds from the ground up. The COMSYS Maritime VSAT Report is provided in PDF form and includes:
To give you an idea of how much quality research goes into our reports, the following shows just how well our predictions for the industry have held up, five years into the forecast period. This compares our forecasts for 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 from the Maritime VSAT Report (4th Edition) compared with what the market actually did:
4th Edition Forecasts
In summary, we believe that we didn’t do too badly again, although we overestimated the number of vessels between 2014 and 2016 (and they suddenly caught up with COMSYS!). The sudden revenue growth in 2014 was also underestimated, but the oil & gas market crash obviously brought everything back inline with our expectations. The fact that vessel numbers have been growing much faster than revenues is a direct result of the fact that, even as there is more and more demand for bandwidth, capacity pricing has been dropping and this has compensated for the growing price pressure and increasing competition that all of the maritime and oil & gas VSAT operators are facing as well as leading the way towards smaller vessels. The results show that the market slightly underperformed our forecasts up until 2017 – our Most Likely predictions overestimated VSAT adoption by just over 17 per cent in 2015/16 and then underestimated by 0.4 per cent in 2017 whilst our Optimistic forecasts were under by 25-30 per cent in 2015/16 and around 15 per cent for 2017/18. Revenue forecasts were -5.7 per cent and -8.7 per cent below actual performance for 2017 and 2018 in our Most Likely scenario with the Optimistic forecast off by 7.7 and 8.6 per cent. All in all, we believe that our predictions have been pretty close to the actual results and well within acceptable tolerances.
We made the same comparison of the predictions in our previous reports. These figures compare our forecasts made in 2011 for the 3rd Edition, 2009 for the 2nd Edition and prior to that in 2007 for the 1st Edition compared with what the market actually did:
3rd Edition Forecasts
The results for the 3rd edition showed that the market slightly outperformed our Optimistic forecasts – our Most Likely predictions underestimated VSAT adoption by 6.5 per cent in 2012 and 13.6 per cent in 2013 whilst our Optimistic forecasts were under by 2.0 per cent in 2012 and 5.5 per cent for 2013. Revenue forecasts were 5.4 per cent and 12.1 per cent below actual performance for 2012 and 2013 in our Most Likely scenario with the Optimistic forecast off by -1.3 and -4.2 per cent. Interestingly, if we add in the 2014 comparison the Optimistic forecasts back in 2011 were slightly ahead in terms of vessels in service by 1.3 per cent and the revenues slightly behind by -3.9 per cent.
2nd Edition Forecasts
The results for the 2nd Edition showed that the market slightly outperformed our Optimistic forecasts – our Most Likely predictions underestimated VSAT adoption by 2.8 per cent in 2010 and 6.8 per cent in 2011 whilst our Optimistic forecasts were 0.1 per cent higher in 2010 and almost exactly on target for 2011. Revenue forecasts were 1.5 per cent and 4.5 per cent below actual performance for 2010 and 2011 in our Most Likely scenario with the Optimistic forecast off by -0.5 and -1.6 per cent.
1st Edition Forecasts
Our forecasts for the number of vessels in service made in the 1st Edition were accurate for 2009 at the Most Likely scenario by 2% and by 9% for the Optimistic Scenario. For revenues, both Most Likely and Optimistic forecasts were within a 5% margin of error. For 2008 Most Likely forecasts for both vessels and revenues were within 5% of actual results and the Optimistic scenarios were within 1%!
We know of no other research consultancy that actually compares - and publishes - previous forecasts with actual results a few years later. We believe that this is one of the things that marks COMSYS out as unique.
Customers have already commented on the uniqueness of The
Report - there is nothing else like it. The maritime
communications niche was previously extremely small and specialised and was,
dominated by the L-band MSS providers except in high-bandwidth or
mission-critical industry segments. However, from the mid-2000s VSAT services broke out from the oil & gas, cruise and ferry
sub-segments and began to be sold in the mainstream commercial, fishing and leisure segments,
challenging the dominance of L-band. Until the first edition of the
COMSYS Maritime VSAT Report there was no
definitive research on this high-margin business and therefore no true
visibility on how demand for broadband at sea is growing.
In this section of our site, we'll tell you what we do and give you some explanations, stories and statistics about the industry. Read on for this or click here for pricing and ordering information.
For current and potential suppliers of products and services this report is an invaluable source on the status and future potential of the maritime stabilised VSAT market today. It gives market shares, growth rates, annual contract and sales bookings, business trends, industry and regional breakdowns together with four year forecasts.